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Profit from the Pros

 TODAY'S OPENING VIEW
 Provided by Schaeffer's Investment Research
Opening View: Toyota Motor Slashes Car-Sales Forecast for China
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com) and Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com) -

U.S. stock futures are lower this morning, indicative of a potentially negative start to the regular session of trading. Checking in on commodities, gold futures have pared recent losses after a boost from the World Gold Council's latest report on demand. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite took the road less traveled overseas, surging higher in the wake of China's fuel-tax proposal. In focus this morning are job cuts from BASF (BASFY), earnings from BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and the latest sales forecast from Toyota Motor (TM).

Checking in on currencies and commodities, the U.S. Dollar Index has pared some of its recent gains, backpedaling 0.41% to hover near the 87 level. Meanwhile, December gold futures have muscled about $5.10, or 0.7%, higher, after an early report from the World Gold Council revealed that retail investors sharply increased their demand for gold bars and coins during the past few months. Finally, crude-oil futures have lost 25 cents, or 0.44%, to flirt with the $54.50-per-barrel marker.

Chemical company BASF this morning announced that it would cut 20,000 jobs, temporarily close 80 plants worldwide, and reduce production at 100 of its facilities. Most affected will be the company's main site in Germany, where 5,000 positions are expected to be lost. The firm also warned that adjusted earnings before interest and taxes wouldn't grow this year.

In the auto sector, Toyota Motor cut its car-sales forecast in China by 14.3% this year, the Nikkei newspaper reported this morning, citing figures released by a Tokyo executive yesterday. The car king is now targeting 600,000 vehicle sales - about 100,000 less than its previous forecast. The revised sales target reflects 20% growth in sales from a year earlier, down from Toyota's previous forecast of 40%. Ahead of the bell, the shares of TM are hovering around breakeven at $63.25.

In earnings news, BJ's Wholesale Club reported third-quarter earnings of $28.2 million, or 48 cents per share, compared with $22.7 million, or 35 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales were $2.4 billion, up 13% from the year-ago period. Analysts, on average, had forecast BJ to earn 46 cents per share on $2.4 billion in sales during the quarter. For the full year, BJ now expects earnings of $2.20 to $2.30 per share, up from $2.10 to $2.20 previously projected. For 2009, BJ's expects a profit of $2.27 to $2.39 a share. In pre-market activity, the shares of BJ are poised to gap moderately higher than yesterday's close of $33.57.

Earnings Preview

Also on the earnings front today, LDK Solar (LDK), Trina Solar (TSL), Hot Topic (HOTT), and Limited (LTD) are slated to release their quarterly figures. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com throughout the day for more.

Economic Calendar

The economic calendar is packed today, with October's building permits and housing starts, the October consumer price index (CPI) and the core CPI, as well as minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims, October's leading economic indicators, and the November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are slated for release. There are no economic reports slated for release on Friday.

Market Statistics

Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,171,875 call contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 1,098,612 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio jumped to 0.94, while the 21-day moving average inched higher to 0.82.

Volatility indices

NYSE and Nasdaq summary

**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures

Overseas Trading

Overseas trading is discouraging this morning, with only 2 of the 11 foreign indices that we track in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a loss of 0.9%. Taking the unbeaten path into the black was the Shanghai Composite, surging more than 6% higher after Chinese officials announced plans to reform nationwide fuel taxes. Elsewhere, shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 6.4% in Japan, after the country's largest bank reported a 64% decline in first-half net income.

Across the pond in Europe, finance-related issues are getting hammered for the third consecutive session, with analysts at UBS predicting "a dreadful year for bank earnings" in 2009. Meanwhile, shares of SolarWorld declined 16%, after the firm offered 250 million euros cash to purchase 4 Opel plants from General Motors (GM). However, Swiss medicine mogul Novartis (NVS) inched 1% higher after revealing plans to file for approval on its multiple-sclerosis drug in early 2009.

Overseas markets

The U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y) rose 0.4% to 86.91 on Tuesday, as the greenback fell versus the euro but rebounded against the Japanese yen. A mix of economic reports kept currency traders on their toes yesterday, with October's producer price index (PPI) falling by a record 2.8% and capital inflows logging their largest increase in more than 2 years during September. Against this backdrop, the euro rose to $1.268, while the dollar advanced to 97.27 yen.

The futures contract on the 30-year bond (US/1) rose 1-11/32 on Tuesday, as Treasurys posted strong gains, pushing short-term yields towards their lowest levels in 5 years. The aforementioned economic reports prompted the rally in the bond market, with traders reacting to falling wholesale prices and rising capital inflows. The biggest lift for Treasurys arrived when the National Associate of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that their monthly market index gauge plunged 5 points to a record-low reading of 9 for early November.

Treasurys in early trading

Commodity Corner

Gold futures extended Monday's losses yesterday, despite a bleak report from the NAHB. The malleable metal continued its lock-step movement with the equities market, falling alongside stocks in Tuesday's trading. Furthermore, the tame PPI data only encouraged the selling mood among metals traders. By the close, gold for December delivery dropped $9.30, or 1.3%, to end at $732.70 per ounce.

Precious metals sector

Crude futures caught an early lift on Tuesday when a Saudi Arabian supertanker carrying $100 million worth of oil was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia. However, the supply-related concerns were short-lived, particularly after investors learned of October's tepid inflationary data. Instead, traders focused on the prospect of waning energy demand from the U.S. following a record low in the NAHB's monthly market index. Crude oil for December delivery ended on a loss of 56 cents at $54.39 per barrel, after earlier falling to $53.96 -- its lowest intraday price in nearly 2 years.

Oil sector

Unusual Put and Call Activity:

For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations.

Unusual options activity - puts

Unusual options activity - calls

To read more of our analysis on the market's biggest stories, please visit our Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog section throughout the trading day.

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